The Dollar fell to a one-month low versus the Euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its 2008 growth forecast and warned of higher unemployment, reducing prospects of an interest rate hike later this year. Although minutes of the Fed's April 29-30 policy meeting highlighted worries over inflation and signaled more interest rate cuts were unlikely, it was insufficient to halt the Dollar's slide and it also touched a one-week low versus the Yen.
EurUsd surged as high as 1.5798, getting close to 1.6020 record peak above touched last month. It last traded at 1.5781 up 0.84%. UsdJpy dropped to a one-week low of 102.96, before recovering to 103.05, still down 0.59%. UsdChf dived 1.08% to 1.0257. UsdCad fell 0.83% to 0.9836, boosted by high oil prices and a gain in April Canadian consumer prices.
The slide in the Dollar came as stocks tumbled on the combination of record oil prices and the Fed lowering its 2008 growth projections to a meager 0.3% to 1.2% from its estimate of 1.3% to 2% made three months ago. The central bank also warned it expected unemployment to rise "significantly." Some analysts said the minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee suggested the US central bank could still lower rates further this year.
Short-term interest rate futures, which track market expectations for Fed policy, showed an 88% chance that the central bank will keep benchmark lending rates unchanged at 2% after aggressively cutting them by 325bp since mid-September. Prospects for a rate hike by year-end were around 80%, from near 100 percent on Tuesday.
In strong contrast, a surprise improvement in German business sentiment bolstered the case for higher euro zone interest rates, adding to the bullish tone surrounding the Euro. The ECB has held interest rates at 4% since last June, and expectations of slower euro zone economic growth in recent weeks had led investors to start pricing in a near-term rate cut. But the recent string of strong data from Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, has called that outlook into question.
EurUsd surged as high as 1.5798, getting close to 1.6020 record peak above touched last month. It last traded at 1.5781 up 0.84%. UsdJpy dropped to a one-week low of 102.96, before recovering to 103.05, still down 0.59%. UsdChf dived 1.08% to 1.0257. UsdCad fell 0.83% to 0.9836, boosted by high oil prices and a gain in April Canadian consumer prices.
The slide in the Dollar came as stocks tumbled on the combination of record oil prices and the Fed lowering its 2008 growth projections to a meager 0.3% to 1.2% from its estimate of 1.3% to 2% made three months ago. The central bank also warned it expected unemployment to rise "significantly." Some analysts said the minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee suggested the US central bank could still lower rates further this year.
Short-term interest rate futures, which track market expectations for Fed policy, showed an 88% chance that the central bank will keep benchmark lending rates unchanged at 2% after aggressively cutting them by 325bp since mid-September. Prospects for a rate hike by year-end were around 80%, from near 100 percent on Tuesday.
In strong contrast, a surprise improvement in German business sentiment bolstered the case for higher euro zone interest rates, adding to the bullish tone surrounding the Euro. The ECB has held interest rates at 4% since last June, and expectations of slower euro zone economic growth in recent weeks had led investors to start pricing in a near-term rate cut. But the recent string of strong data from Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, has called that outlook into question.
The Risk Today:
EurUsd Euro is back on uptrend having broke out 1.5400 – 1.5600 consolidation range. Market could now return up to 1.6000 Pivot point resistance ahead of key resistance 1.6200 market target. On downside, only a return below previous week trading range would open the way to 1.5000 psychological key level before 1.4500 pivot point. Support holds 1.5285 last week low. Initial support holds 1.5680 Tuesday high.
GbpUsd Cable is trading near the upper Trendline resistance of one-month downtrend 2.0398 – 1.9364. This move over 1.9600 may reopen the way up to 1.9800 and 2.0000 psychological level. Actual trading range is 1.9500 – 1.9800. On the downside, a reversal below 1.9600 might bring again focus on 1.9337 January low and 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Strong support holds 1.9363 20th February and 14th May low.
UsdJpy Recent 1 ½-month uptrend found resistance around 105. Market broke on Tuesday the lower Trendline support. This recent profit taking on 105 might send the market back down to 100 – 104 consolidation trading range. Minor support holds 102.58 May 9th low. Renewed strength would put 110.10 strong resistance (Trendline) into focus and mid January double top ahead of 111.92 early January high.
UsdChf Market hit 1.0625 two-month high. On Tuesday, it broke down in 1.0400-1.0600 trading range. This move would open the way down to 1.0200 and toward 0.9639 17th March low. Early January double top 1.1191 marks strong resistance. Initial resistance holds 1.0625 May 8th high.
GbpUsd Cable is trading near the upper Trendline resistance of one-month downtrend 2.0398 – 1.9364. This move over 1.9600 may reopen the way up to 1.9800 and 2.0000 psychological level. Actual trading range is 1.9500 – 1.9800. On the downside, a reversal below 1.9600 might bring again focus on 1.9337 January low and 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Strong support holds 1.9363 20th February and 14th May low.
UsdJpy Recent 1 ½-month uptrend found resistance around 105. Market broke on Tuesday the lower Trendline support. This recent profit taking on 105 might send the market back down to 100 – 104 consolidation trading range. Minor support holds 102.58 May 9th low. Renewed strength would put 110.10 strong resistance (Trendline) into focus and mid January double top ahead of 111.92 early January high.
UsdChf Market hit 1.0625 two-month high. On Tuesday, it broke down in 1.0400-1.0600 trading range. This move would open the way down to 1.0200 and toward 0.9639 17th March low. Early January double top 1.1191 marks strong resistance. Initial resistance holds 1.0625 May 8th high.
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